The Eurasian Land-Bridge:
The mort important strategic question of today.
By Helga Zepp LaRouche Jr.
speech transcript, Feb. 5, 1997
The presentation of Helga Zepp LaRouche, founder of the Schiller
Institute, to the Feb. 5 forum on the Eurasian Land Bridge, follows.
Subheads have been added.
Helga Zepp LaRouche:
European/Eurasian Land-Bridge is, no matter what the media say or not,
the most important strategic question of today. And, the success of
the economic integration of the Eurasian continent, on a very
high-level technological basis, will determine the fate of mankind.
And, this is not a question ahead in the very far future, but I think
that, considering the different strategic parameters, the question of
whether the Clinton administration takes a positive attitude to make
it a foreign policy strategic interest of the United States, to
support the success of this Eurasian Land-Bridge, or if they remain
indifferent, passive, or worse, will indeed determine whether mankind
plunges into an incredible catastrophe, of which the developments in
Africa give us a small foretaste, or whether we are in front of the
biggest economic miracle in world history.
alternative is directly in front of us, and I think the reason this
question is the most important, is fairly obvious. If you look at the
population density in the world today, you can see very clearly that
the largest concentration of the world population is in China and
Southeast Asia and South Asia, with very thinly sprinkled
concentrations elsewhere. And, this part of the world, South Asia,
West Asia, Southeast Asia, is also going to be the area of the largest
population growth in the next century.
presently represents 1.2 billion people. It is presently the most
populous in the world, and it has, without any question, had the most
intensive positive economic development of any country on this planet
in the last 12 to 17 years, averaging 10%, even 12%, annual growth.
fascinating thing right now is that at the Davos World Economic Forum,
despite rather hysterical misreportingby the international press, the
European/Eurasian Land-Bridge, and the economic development of China,
but, in a new way, also, of India, is the most debated topic in Davos
in the last couple of days.
is very funny that, for a long time, Mr. LaRouche was like a sole
caller in the desert, warning about the imminent collapse of the
financial system, advocating the Eurasian Land-Bridge, with the
international media basically denying both realities, as a matter of
fact, not reporting about the true condition of the world financial
system, but equally absolutely not reporting about the emerging
alternative reality, in the form of the Eurasian Land-Bridge. Now, all
of a sudden, at the Davos summit, both realities are popping out, and
are on the table.
the two issues which were debated there by some of the leading world
financial and economic political leaders, were, on the one side, the
imminent financial crash of the speculative bubble, possibly triggered
by the crisis in Japan, or other factors, the systemic crisis of the
system as a whole, but, also, the Eurasian Land-Bridge. And, some
people were completely annoyed about the self-assuredness with which
the Chinese representative and the Prime Minister of India presented
the development perspectives of their respective countries, at Davos.
let me first give you a taste of what the debate is, especially in
Europe, about the imminence of the financial crash, because I don't
think that those of you who looked at President Clinton's State of the
Union address last night, got the full flavor of what the debate right
director of the Institute for International Economics in Washington,
C. Fred Bergsten, did make a speech at the Davos conference, warning
of the new dangers to the financial system coming from Japan,
triggered by the yen crisis plus the overall economic situation in
Japan, which would pose new threats to the international system. He
says there is the danger of a vicious circle, a weakness o the
financial system in Japan, combined with a restrictive Japanese
monetarist policy, which could lead to a continuous fall of the yen.
Panic selling on the stock market could hit Japan, and then banks
would have no other choice than to liquidate their foreign assets.
This would then have devastating consequences on foreign markets. And
then, in addition, you could have new Mexico-style crises in the
emerging markets at any moment, most likely in Brazil and Argentina,
and that could then trigger a chain reaction all over the world.
this was not the only voice. In the meantime, you have European
conservative financial dailies, like the Neue Zuericher Zeitung, which
is the paper of Swiss banking and conservative circles, on Jan. 24,
reporting in a big banner headline: ``Are the Stock Markets Heading
for a New Crash? Comparison of the Present Development with that of
1929 and 1987.''
Prof. Gerhard Aschinger, from the University of Freiburg, describes
his scenario of the coming crash, which is divided into six phases,
leading up to a market crash. And, he says that we are presently in
the fifth phase, passing into the sixth. The fifth phase is
characterized by euphoria and irrational behavior by those people
speculating in the market, in terms of a mass psychology. Then, in the
sixth phase, a panic erupts, and the bubble bursts.
says that the transition from the fifth to the sixth phase can be
triggered by events and news which are not so important in themselves;
but, because they lead to an upset, in the expectation to make just a
little bit more profit in speculation, the mass psychology will then
turn into a panic. He says that the fact that the Dow-Jones has risen
by 70% since the beginning of 1995 through the end of 1996, can only
be compared to the speculative bubble of the 1927-29 period. He also
completely agrees on that point with Mr. LaRouche, that the longer the
bubble continues to grow, the larger the crash implosion will be.
these are not individual voices. I wll give you some more, to show you
that right now there is an entire chorus of people warning about the
impending crash, something which, up till recently, only Mr. LaRouche
and our organization has said.
Jan. 15, in Frankfurt, the president of the German savings and loan
association, Horst Koehler, warned that overnight, waves of chaotic
currency speculation could erupt. On Jan. 19, at a seminar of the
Protestant Academy of Tutzing, the former chief economist of the
Bavarian Hypo Bank, Volker Hoelterhoff, said that the world financial
markets are incredibly endangered.
arch-monetarist of Deutsche, Norbert Walter, said that the world
financial markets are decoupled completely from the real economy.
Especially dangerous: the derivatives, and the breathtaking volume of
these derivatives is absolutely frightening.
20, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung predicts that the stock market
hype in New York and in Europe, is just the buying spree based on the
assumption that the party will be over soon.
21, Le Monde: Is the financial world going up in flames? They have a
three-page supplement on the danger of a financial blowout, basically
saying that ``Alone during the first nine months of 1996, $1,195
billion of stocks and bonds have been issued.'' That is $1.1 trillion
worth of stocks and bonds have been issued, in which context they
quote the U.S. stock broker Charles Schwab saying, ``How can anyone
not tremble when imagining the consequences of an eventual brutal
displacement of such masses of capital?''
this gives you the setting of why there is no way this world will
survive, unless we do, very soon, the kind of reorganization Mr.
LaRouche has proposed, why we need a new Bretton Woods system, and
why, after the reorganizaton of the world financial system, the
Eurasian Land-Bridge must be the cornerstone of a global
reconstruction of the world economy.
let me give you, very briefly, the history of the emergence of this
IDB to Productive Triangle
1975, Mr. LaRouche gave, in Milan and in Bonn, a press conference, in
which he predicted that the present or then-existing international
monetary system of the IMF would inevitably go bankrupt, and should be
replaced by a different credit creation institution, namely, the
International Development Bank (IDB), to facilitate long-term cheap
interest credit for capital investment and capital goods transfer from
the industrialized sector to the so-called developing sector, to
overcome the underdevelopment of Africa, Latin America, and large
parts of Asia.
proposal, by the way, was then taken up by the Non-Aligned Movement in
1976, in their Colombo resolution, demanding a just new world economic
because obviously powerful forces prevented this from being
implemented, Mr. LaRouche proposed, in 1978, that the then-existing
European Monetary System should be the cornerstone of such a
reorganization of the world economy. In 1982, in the famous
``Operation Juarez'' proposal, he proposed the urgent debt
reorganization of the Third World, a cancellation of most of the debt,
and reorganizing the world banking system, centering on the economic
integration of the Latin American continent, which was begun to be
implemented by Lopez Portillo, President of Mexico at that point.
in 1984, Mr. LaRouche wrote, with his associates, a study for the
50-year development of the Pacific Basin, which proposed large
infrastructure programs for India, for the Mekong Delta, for South
China, the Kra Canal, for large parts of South China and other places.
And, if you compare the present policies of the Chinese government,
and reflect on the shift which China has made away from the policies
of the Cultural Revolution, you find at least very interesting
parallels between these two approaches.
1988, Mr. LaRouche made the famous proposal for a soon-to-become-real
unification of Germany, which he just referenced. He was, to my
knowledge, the only Western economist and statesman predicting the
collapse of the Soviet Union more than a year before it happened. He
was the only one who predicted the unification of Germany, at a point
at which all German politicians called the unification of Germany the
``lie of the Century,'' people should forget about it, and so forth.
And, Mr. LaRouche said, ``Let's take a unified Germany, and use
Western technologies to develop Poland, and make that the model for
how you can transform the economies of the Warsaw Pact with Western
means into a modern economy.''
in 1989, at a point when (you all remember the pictures on TV), the
Berlin Wall came down at the beginning of November, people were happy.
There was an incredible historical moment. And, again, I must say,
given the fact that I and my friends, Michael and Anno, were on the
scene, busily trying to shape history, there was not anyone, not Kohl,
for sure not from the U.S. administration, or anywhere else, who had
any idea of what to do, of how to capture the historical moment of the
fact that the Wall dividing the Eurasian continent would come down
for, really, the first time since the Versailles Treaty--except Mr.
LaRouche, who proposed the famous program of the Productive Triangle.
Productive Triangle was the idea of taking the territory in the
triangle between Paris, Berlin, and Vienna, which is about the size of
Japan, and which, still to the present day, includes the highest
concentration of industrial capacity and skilled labor power, and goes
through Saxonia, Bohemia, parts of the former Czechoslovakia,
combining, for the first time, the industrial centers of France, the
Ruhr, Saxonia, Bohemia, into one coherent piece.
proposed that this should basically be upgraded, through the most
modern infrastructure network, including the maglev train, the
Trans-Rapid, other investments in avant-garde technologies, to make
this, then, the most powerful locomotive for the recovery of the world
put this proposal on the table in November 1989, to the Kohl
government, to all the Europan governments, East and West. We proposed
that Eastern Europe should be integrated through the development
corridors; namely, through the building up of transport lines, one
corridor going from Warsaw to Moscow, St. Petersburg, another to Kiev,
another to the Balkans, to the Black Sea, another to Sicily, bridging
into Africa, another to the Iberian Peninsula, reaching into Africa.
Productive Triangle Report
report was published in all European languages in 1990. We presented
it at many conferences and seminars in Warsaw, Minsk, Moscow, in Kiev,
in Poland, in Prague, Bratislava, Vienna, Zagreb, Sarajevo, many other
places. What would have been necessary, would have been an approach
whereby the economies of the Warsaw Pact (admittedly not up to world
standard) would not have been dismantled, as happened under the IMF,
but would have been used to build up the infrastructure of Eastern
Europe, to provide the absolutely necessary precondition for
industrial development and agricultural development.
one of the inherent flaws of the communist economy was a complete
neglect of infrastructure. The Soviet Union, for example, used to lose
40% of their agricultural harvest, just because of a lack of
infrastructure. If you remember the famous Autobahn in East Germany,
it was like a bumping road; there was the horrible condition of the
trains; you remember that lack of infrastructure was one of the key
idea, then, was to generate wealth by using up these obsolete
technologies of Eastern Europe, to reach the condition where, with
Western help, one could have a kind of Marshall Plan for the East,
using these corridors (about the functioning of which I will say more)
to drive the economic development of Western Europe into Eastern
Europe; to raise the level of the republics of the former Soviet
Union, and fulfill their aspirations to join the First World, which is
what the people in Ukraine, in Poland, in Lithuania, in Russia,
wanted. They wanted to be part of the advanced est; you all remember
we know that history took a different turn. Mr. LaRouche has mentioned
it: The key banker in Germany who was thinking a little bit in the
direction that we do, Alfred Herrhausen of Deutsche Bank, was
assassinated. Just recently, Deutschlandfunk, the official German
radio, has pointed to certain Anglo-American financial interests as
being behind the murder, not the Baader-Meinhof group. And, it is also
being debated that they don't even exist: There is no
``third-generation Baader-Meinhof group.'' But, for geopolitical
reasons, Herrhausen was assassinated, and I'm afraid that everybody of
rank in Germany knows the details and reasons for this.
Germany, rather than going in the direction we proposed, and using
Europe's historic chance, capitulated to the British campaign of
Margaret Thatcher, George Bush, and Mitterrand, but especially the
British; namely, that if Germany did that, it would become the
``Fourth Reich.'' So Kohl, rather than using the historic chance,
capitulated, and today we are seeing a complete collapse of Western
Europe, and the end of the Kohl era in the very immediate period.
however, continued to organize for the realization of this program.
1992, we presented a proposal for the Eurasian infrastructure alliance
because, at that point, the Soviet Union had collapsed, and we
proposed to combine the Productive Triangle, situated in Western
Europe, through infrastructure lines, all the way to China, with Line
A being the northern route, the Vladivostok Trans-Siberian Railroad,
Line B going through Ukraine, Kazakhstan, China, and Line C from
Turkey, Iran, Kazakhstan, China.
we proposed to integrate the Eurasian continent into one piece. And,
again, we had many conferences about this in Moscow, in other places.
And, especially because China at that point was still involved in a
very dangerous mixture, on the one side a state-planned economy, but,
on the other side, also being absorbed in the speculative bubble, we,
fortunately, put out many wanings against financial AIDS--that is,
speculation in the economy--warnings which were published widely in
by 1993, the Chinese government consciously turned away from the
bubble economy, put more emphasis on a dirigist policy, and there was
a clear revival of the famous policy of the founder of modern China,
Dr. Sun Yat-sen, who, in the 1920s, had put out a beautiful document
called the ``International Development of China.'' This is a map he
used, which includes a very elaborated system of integrated railways,
water projects, and other infrastructure programs.
Sun at that point proposed a rail system to be 100,000 km long, one
million kilometers of new roads, large canal projects, and projects
for the control of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River, the
construction of many new cities, which is all in this map.
Delors Plan Is Shelved
in 1993, Jacques Delors from the European Union, put out the famous
Delors White Book, which included practically all the original
Productive Triangle transport lines, minus the railway from Munich to
Zagreb, because they assumed that the Balkans war would continue for a
White Book was completely skipped, and is now hidden somewhere in
Brussels, or I don't know where.
in 1993-94, there were further important changes in the economic
policy of the Chinese government to reduce the bubble, both in the
real estate market and in other markets. They implemented more
dirigistic measures, put more stress on the Eurasian Land-Bridge, and
announced that they intended to develop the northeast regions of
China, to improve relations between China and Europe, as well as the
rest of Asia.
May 1994, the Vice Minister of the State Commission on Science and
Technology, Hui Yongzhen, gave an exclusive interview to Executive
Intelligence Review, in which he said that the Eurasian Land-Bridge
would be the central feature of China's international and economic
August of 1994, representatives of the ER participated in Lanzhou, in
a conference on the cooperation for the development of the Eurasian
Land-Bridge. And, in May 1996, I myself, together with a delegation of
the Schiller Institute, participated as a speaker at the Beijing
conference, titled ``The Development of the Economic Regions Along the
conference was a watershed, because the Chinese government announced
there their strategic long-term perspective for China up through the
year 2010, which is already written into government legislation. And
they have no less a goal than to bring the entirety of China up to the
level of the rest of the world, as quickly as possible.
spokesmen, whose speeches you all can read in the report we published,
announced that a new era of mankind has started, namely, the
Land-Bridge era, where, for the first time in human history, there
will be no more regions of the world which will be disadvantaged
because of their geographical positions, but, because of the
Land-Bridge conception, you can bring development into all areas
around the globe. And especially the landlocked areas will participate
in the same kind of advantages which, previously, only maritime
cultures or cultures, civilizations based on rivers, had.
I think the most important thing was that this conference, in which I
think 34 nations participated, expressed an incredible cultural
optimism, an optimism which you do not find in the United States, in
Europe, for sure not in Russia. And, people were just completely
filled with the idea that the underdevelopment of mankind is coming to
since that May conference--again, the international press has not
reported this. Except for one or two tiny articles, there was an
absolutely deafening silence about the fact that the majority of the
world had come together to decide to overcome underdevelopment--
the meantime, an incredibly breathtaking development has taken place,
namely, a very wide array of agreements and deals, mainly blacked out
by the press. Beginning in January of this year, eight developing
countries met in Istanbul, Turkey, forming the so-called D-8, the
Development Eight, as a counterweight to the G-7. This was under the
leadership of Prime Minister Erbakan of Turkey, and with the
participation of the Foreign Ministers of Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Nigeria, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt, representing, again, about
700 million people. The D-8 announced that they would be open for
aim of the D-8, which they announced, was to help its members in their
development goals, to function as a partner in cooperation with other
organizations, and to be an equal partner with the G-7. This all goes
back to a vision of Erbakan's and Indonesia's Habibie, when both of
them studied as young students at the University of Aachen in Germany,
where they planned that. I think this will give you optimism:
Sometimes you have a good plan, and it takes 30, 40 years, until you
are in a position to realize it.
Erbakan, the moment he was Prime Minister, took his foreign trip to
Iran, Pakistan, and Malaysia. And, in Teheran, he signed an agreement:
large pipeline agreements between Iran and Turkey which, for 23 years,
is supposed to delivery natural gas from Turkmenistan and Iran, to
Turkey and beyond. They also agreed on completing the missing railway
link between Tabriz and Bonn, and they have planned the founding of
this organization, the D-8, for June of this year.
let me give you a couple of the elements of what is going on, and why
China right now is the fastest-developing country, and you will get a
sense that while, on the one side, we are looking at the collapse of
the financial system, rising unemployment in Europe, collapse of
economies, there is a completely different process, where economic
development is taking place, actually representing hope for mankind as
is presently involved in absolutely gigantic infrastructure projects.
Among them, are these: They want to have a railroad network, by the
year 2000, increased by 11,000 km, and by 2000, to be 90,000 km
altogether, which is twice the amount they have today. They want to
have completed the first 300 km of a high-speed train between Beijing
and Shanghai, also by 2000. They want to increase the road
network--roads--by 12,000 km. They want to build 14 large subway
systems in the next five to 10 years. One hundred airports, 100 ports.
In the next 20 to 30 years, 200 cities with 1 million habitants or
more each, because they expect a population increase of 200 million
people, and they want to supply adequate housing.
hydroelectric plants, large-scale canal and irrigation projects to
divert the water from the water-rich south to the dry north; four
nuclear power units come on line in the next years, and many more are
planned, and the first HTR, High Temperature Reactor, is under
of the Century
are two so-called ``Projects of the Century.'' One is the famous Three
Gorges Dam project. Here you see an artist's painting of what it could
look like when it's finished. This project mainly has as its aim the
taming of the Yangtze River, using also the water gained then in the
reservoir for energy and irrigation.
the second Project of the Century, is the new Eurasian rail
development, linking the Chinese coastal area, through the enormous
interior regions, to Europe.
is a whole array of ambitious projects along the Yangtze River,
combining this Yangtze River development project. They also have
projects for the Pearl River delta in the southeast. The region along
the Bohai Bay in the northeast, including the Beijing and Tientsin
region, and then, fourth, the development corridor along the Eurasian
rail line, and the modern Silk Road.
of all of these projects, the most spectacular is the Three Gorges Dam
on the Yangtze River. The construction of this began in 1994, going
back to the idea of Dr. Sun Yat-sen. This is a typical example of the
hypocrisy of the environmentalistsand the World Bank, for that matter,
in the West, who have denounced this project tremendously, claiming
that it will hurt the environment, and so forth. But, let's not forget
that in the last flood disaster in this area alone, 33 million
hectares of farmland were flooded, 1,000 people died, 800,000 houses
were destroyed, 2.8 million homes were damaged. And, that is after the
Chinese government hd already taken some measures to limit the damage,
because, in previous centuries, you had many flood catastrophes, in
which tens or even hundreds of thousands of people would die.
this dam is supposed to be completed in the year 2010, and then the
danger of these floods will be eliminated. It will also produce
hydroelectric power of 85 terrawatt hours per year; but, most
importantly, it will eliminate the threat to 15 million people living
in this area. It will cost $30 billion, but, in the long term, it will
be incredibly profitable. The hydroelectric power plant, with a
maximum capacity of 17,680 MW, will produce 13 times the amount a
normal nuclear power plant produces. It will be the most powerful
hydroelectric plant in the world, and it will be a key element in
China's energy grid, at least until nuclear energy is developed.
of it will be a five-level system of locks, which can lift 10,000 GRTs
(gross registered tons), which will enable ships to travel upstream as
far as the city of Chongqing, which will make 700 km of the Yangtze
navigable. Then you will have, in China, a river like the Rhine in
Europe, and all of you who have ever been in Germany or Holland, have
seen what a beautiful thing the Rhine is, which is completely
regulated. You have one ship, one after the other, you have freighters
going. Every time Mr. LaRouche sees that, he says, ``This is
infrastructure! That's what it should look like!'' So, China is going
to have their own Rhine very soon.
the dam, the volume of freight will be increased from, presently 10 to
15 million tons, and the cost will be reduced by one-third. Naturaly,
it will also be a gigantic reservoir. Through a canal which is yet to
be built, the water will be transported to the north, for irrigation.
This will open up a territory larger than Germany, for infrastructure
development and agriculture in the north.
with the TVA
September of 1996, there was an agreement between the U.S. TVA, the
Tennessee Valley Authority, and the Chinese government, in the
collaboration to build these dams and power plants and canal systems,
taming the Han River, which flows into the Yangtze, through this canal
system, into the north, and, also, the Li River, to also contain
project to divert water from the Yangtze to the Yellow River, through
this modernization of an existing canal, makes use of the fact that
the mouths of the rivers are not very far from each other. So you can
put the water of the Yangtze through a canal system, feeding the
irrigation system of the north of China. And, what this will mean, is
that the Gobi Desert will be a blooming garden fairly soon.
the year 2000, it is also planned to increase, and modernize, and
continue the development project at the mouth of the Yangtze, near
Shanghai. This will be a $100-billion investment program, planning a
new port, modern communication from Shanghai to Chongqing, a new
airport, auto refineries, two auto plants, a nuclear plant, increasing
the steel production to about 48 million tons--which, by then, will be
half of the Chinese steel production--improving the road and railway
from Shanghai to the cities at the upper Yangtze, building four new
railroads alone and eight new highway bridges over the Yangtze, as
well as the 1,300-km high-speed railway between Beijing and Shanghai.
region of the Xi Jiang river delta and the Guangdong canton, is also
one of these development zones. Everything right now is prepared for
the economic integration of Hongkong.
the largest development project in the world right now, is the famous
Bohai project. This is the region at the moth of the Yellow River, in
the northeast of China, and it includes four regions: Shangdong,
Shaanxi, Hebei, and Liaoning. It includes Beijing and the port of
Tianjin, parts of inner Mongolia, and, as I said, it will probably be
the richest development region of the world in a fairly short period
now, that is the center piece of Chinese industrial concentration. It
represents only 12% of the territory, but 20% of the Chinese
population lives there, and they produce one-quarter of all
is an economic zone which also puts together China, Japan, North
Korea, South Korea, and the Far East of Russia. Already now, the Bohai
region is the center of Chinese heavy industry, and machine tool
industry. It represents the second-largest oil and gas revenues of
China, the third-largest chemical production, and a gigantic economic
potential which sits, basically, in Beijing's back yard.
the next years, seven large new ports are planned, or supposed to be
enlarged. Also, to connect this region better to the highlands, many
roads and rails are planned. Key to the new development, is a bridge
over the Bohai Bay which connects the two peninsulas of Shangdong and
Liaoning. This will be the largest sea-bridge in the world, 57 km
long, which will shorten the distance along the coastlines by 2,000
km. It will be an ideal connection between the northern Eurasian
Land-Bridge, the Line A on the previous picture, and Line C, combining
these two different routes.
will also include several bridges and one tunnel. It will be completed
by the year 2010. Until then, a modern railroad ferry is being used
between Dalian, the main port of Liaoning, and Yantai in Shandong.
this entire region, the Bohai region, in the next 15 years, 3,600
infrastructure projects will be built, including road and railroad,
heavy and light industry, nuclear plants, new cities, and so forth.
The idea behind that, is nothing less than the idea of connecting the
developed coastal regions with the undeveloped interior regions and
Europe, and using the development of the coastal area as a development
driver to overcome the underdevelopment of the interior regions.
I said, the Eurasian Land-Bridge already exists. In 1990, the
4,131-km-long railroad was completed at Alataw Pass between China and
Kazakhstan, which was opened in 1992 for container transport. The last
part of the 11,000-km-long line, going from China through Turkmenistan
to Europe, was opened in May 1996: the famous piece between Iran and
construction, turning these infrastructure lines into industrial
corridors--and I will explain what that means in a second--is already
Chinese policy. It's part of the present five-year plan, and the
strategic long-term planning. It includes the port of Lianyungang,
which is located between Shanghai and Qingdao, and which represents
right now what one could call the natural end of the Eurasian
Land-Bridge. Other ports will be built there--for example, Rizhao;
Qingdao will be modernized, as well as Tianjin and Shanghai, Shenzhen,
and Guangzhou (Canton).
the idea is to integrate this existing rail line, with an electricity
grid, oil and gas pipelines, the installation of an optical-fiber net,
which will already start to operate in April of this year, two months
from now. This will be 27,000 km long, and it will be the longest in
the world, connecting Frankfurt in Germany to Shanghai, supplying 20
countries along the way.
idea is, also, to have industrial projects along this line, to process
the rich natural resources along the Eurasian Land-Bridge. For
example, petrochemical complexes, and so forth. For the next 20 to 30
years, the Chinese government has planned, as I said, along this line
mainly, the construction of 200 new cities, which is a gigantic
a very interesting strategic development project is also located in
Tumen, the Tumen Economic Zone. This is a region representing an area
of 10,000 km at the mouth of the Tumen River, including the bordr
region between Russia, China, North Korea, and Vladivostok, which is
the end of the Trans-Siberian Railroad, and is a triangle between
Vladivostok, Yanji in China, and Chongjin in North Korea.
key is a rail connection from Nanjing in North Korea, to Posiet in
Russia, over Chinese territory, to the city of Chita, which will
shorten the distance to Europe by 1,700 km. A connection is also
planned to South Korea, and this is supposed to be a $30-billion
investment program for the next 20 years, and a power zone of a system
of ports and industrial production, comparable to Rotterdam in
Holland. So it will be a gigantic port, trade, and industrial complex,
obviously for the purpose of peaceful collaboration of the countries
involved, which will be absolutely crucial.
I want to look at some of the other pieces of the Eurasian
Land-Bridge, namely, the southern corridors. The revival of the old
Silk Road as a concept was mainly pushed on the impulse of China and
Iran. But now, it involves the very active participation of Turkey,
the Central Asian republics, Russia, Pakistan, and India. And
obviously, the whole concept of what this region is all about,
changing from an area of continuous instability, geopolitical
manipulation, and so forth, is now moving into a region of economic
cooperation to the mutual benefit of all those involved.
May 13, 1996 in Teheran, there was the opening of the 300-km rail line
from Mashhad to Sarakhs and Tedzhen, with the participation of 12
heads of state, 50 nations, and 1,500 delegates. This concluded the
missing link of the transcontinental rail between China, Turkey, and
therefore Europe on the southern route, and President Rafsanjani of
Iran at that point praised the revival of the historic Silk Route as a
``symbol of East-West relations,'' the bridge for the region and the
Peng, meeting in Beijing with the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister,
spoke of the creation of the ``Silk Road for the 21st Century,'' and
represented there the extremely close collaboration etween China and
the meantime, a flood of bilateral and multilateral agreements for the
region has been concluded. In August of last year, Erbakan went with
102 Turkish businessmen, inaugurating a new era in Turkish-Iranian
relations: a $20 billion natural gas deal, a new pipeline, new rail
lines, the integration of the energy grid, and fostering many of these
projects in the region.
one of the reasons why Turkey, despite all economic problems, has had
relatively interesting economic development in the recent period, was
the Southeastern Anatolia Project, which is an area of 75,000 km,
which includes 22 dams, 19 hydroelectric plants for electricity, and
irrigation of an area of 1.7 million hectares. This is supposed to
increase the national income of Turkey by 12%, and it should be noted
that all of this was done without international financing, and without
international help, all by Turkish engineers.
in the meantime, in the summer of 1996, gave a credit worth $270
million to Iran, to help to build the Teheran subway, with Chinese
participation, and put many more projects on the table, to which the
Foreign Minister of Iran, Velayati, gave the policy direction of the
government, by saying: ``We cannot have a peaceful country in a region
plagued by instability, and we cannot have a rich country in a region
Must Reconsider Iran Policy
I think that it is extremely important for the United States to
reconsider its policy towards Iran. First of all, there has been a
very important shift in Iran, which I can only compare to the change
which has occurred in China. China has very consciously turned away
from the Cultural Revolution and decided to go in the opposite
direction, of maximum technological progress, maximum development of
the interior of the regions. And, in a similar way, Iran has had its
own experience with the revolution, with the war with Iraq, and they,
like China, are thinking about how can they accommodate their people,
their growing population,which will be 100 million people by the year
2000, with appropriate living conditions.
are massive, giant projects for the common exploitation of the
enormous oil and gas resources at the Caspian Sea. And obviously,
there are many projects in which Iran is participating. For example,
in Azerbaijan, in the Shakh-Denic consortium. The idea is to have
Iranian natural gas to Nakhichevan in Armenia and to Georgia and
Ukraine. There is also an oil swap with Kazakhstan: To save transport
costs, Kazakhstan will export oil to northern Iran, and then Iran will
sell oil to be exported to the benefit of Kazakhstan. There will be a
pipeline between Iran and Pakistan, part of the Eurasian pipeline net,
and it will then be possible to directly ship oil from the Caspian Sea
and the Gulf to Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, but also Pakistan, India,
China, and Southeast Asia. So we are also looking at a Eurasian energy
the Caspian Sea oil and gas resources are obviously the center of a
lot of international attention these days. But, it should be noted
that Iran wants to change the dependency on these resources, to favor
its own industrial development in-depth based on science and
technology, to increase the productivity of its labor force.
there is an important change going on, in which Iran consciously wants
to define its role as being the gate between East and West and North
and South. There are massive state investments going on: eight major
dams built between 1989 and 1994, 25 new dams under construction, and
70 in the planning stages. The first plans for the use of water power,
for Iran, by the way, were thought out in the United States, in the
'50s, by the U.S. Tennessee Valley Authority, and represented part of
the Franklin D. Roosevelt plan to develop the postwar world. So people
should remember that there was a time when the United States had quite
a different policy towards Iran, not least in the Shah period.
is also doing major investments in its own fertilizer industry. It
wants to double is internal electricity production, and has massive
investments in the metal industry, machine tool, shipbuilding,
aerospace and steel, refineries and petrochemical industries, which
they want to double in the next five years, to surpass Saudi Arabia.
the Central Asian republics, the Silk Route is the only hope for the
future. This concerns Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, which are in the very interesting
geographical position between China, Russia, India, and Europe. And,
this is an area twice the size of Europe.
people don't know this, but this is a region with a very rich cultural
tradition. It's too long now to go into that, but one of the greatest
thinkers of mankind, Ibn-sina, was born in Bukhara, which today is in
Uzbekistan, just to mention one.
region has an enormous wealth of raw materials, but they are
relatively poor. The reason for that, is that during the time of the
Soviet Union, there was relatively one-sided development: a cotton
monoculture in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan. The Soviet
Union got 90% of their cotton from there, and obviously, for this,
they used an enormous amount of water for irrigation, out of the
rivers which flood into the Aral Sea. As a consequence of that, the
water level of the Aral Sea has sunk dramatically. The sea has shrunk
by half, and there is now a big danger of an ecological disaster:
sandstorms and enormous amounts of salt flying around. There is also
the danger that the sea may disappear completely.
during the time of the Soviet Union, there was a plan to direct water
from West Siberia to the Aral Sea through a canal, which would then be
used basically for irrigation in this entire region. This would
require big pumping stations, where the water would be pumped over the
division between West Siberia and the Aral Sea basin, and from there,
the water would flow by gravity, all the way to the southern end of
the canal, and feed a large reservoir. This canal can be built in 15
years. It would cost$18 billion. Gorbachov, by the way, was the one
who abandoned that project.
by Economic Crisis
right now, this region is gripped by a rather severe economic crisis.
All kinds of multinationals are stepping on each other's toes in a raw
materials grab. There is a danger that there will be a repetition of
the old British ``Great Game'' in the region, and it is very clear
that only a crash program of infrastructure development of the
European/Eurasian Land-Bridge will make it possible to solve the
problems of this region.
the main rail line of the Eurasian Land-Bridge goes from China to
Kazakhstan, over the Alataw Pass between Aktogay and the Kazakh border
town of Druzhba, then along the main corridor through Almaty, the
former Alma-Ata, Dzhambul to Tashkent, at which point it divides. One
route goes to the northwest, to Arabakh and Orenburg, Kubichev,
Moscow, and Europe, and the second route divides there in Tashkent, to
Samarkand, Bukhara, Tedzhen, Mashhad (in Iran), Turkey, and Europe.
it is this second route, this southern route, which is actually the
old Silk Route.
these lines are planned and, in part, completed, but obviously they
must be fully built up, to become infrastructure development
corridors. The richness of the raw materials in this region is an
advantage, but they must be used to overcome the dependency on these
raw materials. And, therefore, these corridors must be fully
developed, not just as transport lines, but as functioning
agricultural and industrial production complexes, which is not
impossible, because, for example, in Kazakhstan, you have the
advantage of a very qualified labor force from the old
military-industrial complex of the Soviet Union.
Feb. 4, Le Figaro had the following article on ``Caucasian
Participation in the Eurasian Land-Bridge: Countries of the Caucasus
Decided To Reopen Old Silk Road.'' The article quotes people from the
region, saying that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they
intend to exploit their geogrphical position. As one representative
put it, ``God has given us a strategic position, at the crossroads of
two great routes. One north-south axis, from the Scandinavian
countries and Russia to Iran or Turkey. An east-west axis, from
Central Asia into Europe.''
is building the connection between Kerman and Zahedan. From Zahedan,
the Iranian railroad is already connected to the Pakistani rail
network via the border town of Mirjaveh. The last step is the rail
connection from India to Bangladesh to China, to Southeast Asia.
China recently built an important railway bridge from Ruilui, a town
in China, to Maoshweli in Myanmar. And, from there, it's supposed to
build a 250-km railway to the northwest, to connect to the Rangoon-Mishna
line. So, this will also then be the connection to Nanking in South
China. It will include the Greater Mekong sub-region. It will connect
China, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
further development, a high-speed railway is planned from Kuala Lumpur
to Singapore, the upper circle, and eventually, a rail all the way
down to Jakarta, at which point you will have one railway from
Rotterdam to Jakarta, and you will be able to travel by train from
Holland to Indonesia, in the very near future. I find this absolutely
exciting, because I do not like airplanes.
let me give you, very briefly, a couple of the theoretical aspects
which are absolutely critical to make this project function, because
the new Silk Road has, without any question, to lead to not only a
recovery of the world economy, but to the greatest economic miracle in
history throughout the entire Eurasian continent, and also reaching
all parts of the world.
is absolutely key, therefore, is the concept of the development
corridors, which is supposed to bring the development into those
less-developed areas. And the location of these corridors depends,
first, on geographic considerations, but also on principles of
physical economy, of which Mr. LaRouche is the most advanced spokesman
an theoretician today. But, let me first go to the geographical
famous old Silk Road which linked the ancient civilizations of India,
China, the Middle and Near East, Europe, and Africa, was trade routes,
connected through cities. And, these trade routes spread knowledge and
culture. It is very interesting that the present distribution of the
population along these old Silk Route lines, which is big rivers,
coastlines, channels, roads, and railroads, that even if thousands, to
be precise, about 2,200 years have passed, still, 25% of the
population of Eurasia, and 70% of its urban population, is living
along only three transport corridors. You have a very heavy population
density along these corridors.
the development of the railroads is key for the development of
Eurasia, because it is possible for the first time to open up the vast
hinterlands of Eurasia. Mr. LaRouche already referenced that, in 1869,
in the United States, there was the first transcontinental railroad in
the world. And, at that point, people had the idea of an
intercontinental railway net, including Africa, Europe, and Asia. But,
we all know that the British Empire was completely determined to
prevent this from happening, and regarded it as casus belli. This was
one of the key reasons for World War I and World War II, and decades
of the Cold War.
a result of this interruption in completing what seems to be so
naturally in mankind's interest, after 100 years, namely, 100 years
after the first transcontinental rail line in the United States, there
is only one continuous rail line in Eurasia. There was only one
continuous railway in Eurasia, until last year, which was the Paris-Vladivostok-Trans-Siberian
rail line, and then this other line being completed in May of last
at many different parts of the other routes, there are parts under
construction, a railroad here, a canal there, but up to the present
day many gaps still exist. One can clearly sy that the May conclusion
of the Mashhad-Sarakhs line, represented a turning point in this
development. And now, there are three major rail connections: the
northern, the middle, and the southern routes, which connect the 500
million people of Europe, and 4 billion people in East Asia and
it is very clear that one has to look at these transport lines as
transporting many more goods in the near future (because of the
population growth) than what is happening now. So we are only looking
at the beginning of a gigantic development. Several nations
participating in this, are, right now, modernizing the existing lines,
or building new lines, and are engaged in the modernization of the
track transfer at several of the borders, because the tracks are
there are massive plans in India right now, to improve the northern
routes, via the island of Sakhalin to Japan. There is a plan to build
a tunnel under the Bering Strait to the United States.
if you look at the map of the population concentration in the world,
one can see that the only areas which have population density
comparable to that of the Productive Triangle in Europe, are, first,
in China, in the river valleys along the Yellow River, and the
Yangtze. Then, parts of Korea, parts of Japan, Java in Indonesia,
parts of India and Bangladesh, and the Northeast Coast of the United
States, and the area of the Great Lakes in the U.S. Midwest.
reason that this is important, from the standpoint of physical
economy, is because low population, contrary to the idiots of the
environmentalist movement and criminals like Lester Brown, low
population density is actually a negative economic factor. What you
have to look at, is the cost per capita for the specific living
standard and level of production. And a large factor in that, is the
basic infrastructure cost.
basic infrastructure cost involves: roads, railroads, public
transport, production and distribution of energy, a supply of sable
water, canalization, communication, health care, and education. If you
think about that, it is clear that the average cost, for example, for
1 million people in a well-planned city, is much less than for 1
million people who are spread over a rural area. Therefore, cities
represent a much higher efficiency. Because, first of all, you have a
much shorter distance to conquer for persons, goods, and services to
be supplied. You have a higher intensity of use of all the systems,
for example, transport, education, and so forth, and, third, you have
a better use of the technologies in urban centers. You have a higher
energy-flux density, and a higher power density of machines.
Therefore, you can do more useful work, with a relatively smaller
expenditure of labor, materials, and land-area per unit output.
parameter, by the way, the energy flux density, coheres directly with
the increase of population density. In other words, the more people
you have, the higher the density of the production process must be.
Therefore, advances in technology always lead to, and can lead to, an
increase in the potential population density. Conversely, an increased
concentration in population density stimulates the progress of
technology. This is not only true for cities, but also for populations
along rivers, trade routes, and so forth.
you compare the relative energy efficiency of the United States,
France, Japan, in the time before the crisis erupted, let's say, 1980,
they had a roughly comparable standard of living, health services, and
industrial activity. Japan required the least expenditure of energy
per capita. But they had the highest density of energy use per square
kilometer. So, there is very clearly an advantage of greater density.
typical infrastructure corridor along these transport lines, should be
imagined in the following way. You have a corridor approximately 100
km wide, which includes a rail line, a high-capacity electric power
line, oil and gas pipelines, water supply lines,
fiberopticscommunications lines, and so forth.
most essential preconditions for any industrial and agricultural and
urban construction, are these infrastructural arteries, which, once
built, can then branch out, and eventually cover the entire territory;
but, starting the development from these arteries, and then branching
out into the lesser developed areas.
these arteries, you also want to have new cities (which, in
parentheses, must be built beautifully, not like Houston). There are
very many beautiful architectural models in the ancient cultures of
Eurasia, and people should use the fact that nowadays, it's so much
cheaper to build, to not neglect beauty. I mean, just think about the
beautiful cities of China, of Korea, of Thailand and other places, and
there are many ideas for how these places can be built beautifully.
the infrastructure corridor model is important, because if you only
build a rail line to connect, let's say, A to B over a long distance,
then that railway is only a cost factor. But, if you have this kind of
an approach, then, through the dense agricultural and industrial
activity, the line from A to B becomes an economic multiplier, and the
larger the density of the economic activity along the route, the more
efficient the investment into the initial railway becomes. So, what
you want to create is both large markets and large suppliers of goods,
so that the connection from A to B has the role of a gigantic
this approach is obviously the unique way to overcome the
disadvantages of unfavorable natural conditions, let's say of Arctic
Siberia, deserts of Central Asia, and landlocked areas in principle.
And, it is also clear that therefore, the continuous development of a
corridor, is more advantageous than, let's say, islands of economic
activities which have no immediate connection.
let me go very briefly into some of the absolutely necessary
technologies needed to make the Eurasian Land-Bridge succeed. The need
exists to use avant-garde echnologies in these corridors. Once you use
them in the corridors, they will be distributed to the participating
nations of the Land-Bridge. In this way, the corridors become the
transmission belts for scientific and technological progress in all of
the Eurasian Land-Bridge is supposed to become the locomotive for the
world economy, it is important to apply the principle of physical
economy in selecting the most important technologies for transport,
energy, water, and communication.
since the average parameters of performance of infrastructure in the
Eurasian corridor must supersede those in Japan before the crisis, in
all categories--for electricity, heating, fuel per capita and per
square kilometer, supply of households, industrial production,
agricultural production, water, and so forth--the performance of
transport systems in ton kilometers and value ton km per hour per
capita and per square kilometer, communication systems, and health and
education systems--therefore, the selection of technologies must be
based on the relatively highest density of performance, in terms of
the infrastructure performance per unit of land area, per employed
worker, and per other resources consumed, by the given infrastructural
higher performance correlates broadly with the energy flux density or
power density of that technology, as measured in watts per centimeter
of power flow through the crucial work surface of the process
technological quality of the energy system, therefore, must increase.
For example, there must be a growing role of electricity versus
thermal power, of high-temperature heat versus low-temperature heat,
increasing the speed in passenger transport, and so forth.
infrastructure projects also must be designed in advance, to
anticipate the introduction of more advanced technologies when the
corridor is developed. The integration of all means of
transport--water transport, railroads, planes, and trucks--must also
be included, including the containerization offreight transfer from
one mode to the other. Since there is a dramatic increase in global
demand for multi-mode transport projected, it is crucial to anticipate
now how to overcome the bottlenecks.
already exist engineer designs for fully automated freight transfer
stations, so-called Combi-terminals. In France, the first generation
of rapid transfer systems is already in operation, the so-called
commuter facility near Paris.
present conventional, state-of-the-art system involves the use of
porto-cranes, which run 700 meters along tracks parallel to the train
tracks. Then, to unload a typical container train of 600 meters in
length, carrying 40 containers, such a crane normally requires at
least 70 minutes. With the first generation of automated rapid
transfer systems, this can be reduced to 15 minutes or less. For
example, in Germany, Krupp is presently developing such a system,
called the Fast Freight Transfer Facility.
Modes of Transport
Eurasian Land-Bridge must combine all major modes of transport, but
the reason that railroad transport must play a central role, is
because it requires much less energy, and less labor. It is also less
affected by climate and weather, than road or ship.
systems are obviously the French TGV, with 300 km per hour, and 150 km
or more for new high-speed freight lines. Also, the present Eurasian
Land-Bridge is based on conventional railroad technology. It is
absolutely crucial that the magnetically elevated ground transport
play a decisive role in the future. One existing model is the German
Transrapid, which can go 450 to 500 km per hour, and, hopefully, will
be built by the year 2005 between Hamburg and Berlin, if present
resistance can be overcome, and then eventually extend to a
this Transrapid, you could go from Paris to Beijing in six or seven
hours, so that you could easily go in the morning, and in a leisurely
way do your work on your terminal, have telephone work, and by the
afternoon, you would be in Bejing, well-rested, securely, without
weather storms in the air, and so forth. Japan is only slightly behind
Germany, building a different system, and, also, China is working on
one. There is a very interesting model presently being worked on by
some Ukrainian scientists.
kind of travel is revolutionary. It eliminates vibration and friction,
because it's not connected to the ground, and the speed is really nice
to get ahead. This technology will be very efficient in all of
Eurasia. It will replace short- and middle-distance flights, because
it's completely ridiculous: If you go from New York to Washington, you
spend two hours getting to the airport, one hour in the air, two hours
getting from the airport. With this, you will have one hour travel and
be where you want to be.
total investment for the maglev system, of the type of the Transrapid,
of a total length of 100,000 km, will be approximately one trillion
dollars. That sounds like a lot; but, it's only $220 per capita of the
Eurasian population, in a span of 10 to 15 years. And, for about 10
years, it requires an investment of only 1% of the GNP of the
respective countries. But, think about the change this will mean.
obviously, for transport by sea, which is still the most efficient for
bulk goods and goods which are not dependent on time delivery, namely,
raw materials, semi-finished products, fuels, grains, heavy machinery,
and so forth, this will also expand many times. Therefore, we will
need massive expansion of harbor facilities, and major improvements of
inland waterways, new inland shipping canals. Many breakthroughs have
been made in the recent period, for example, in the high-speed gas
turbine-powered catamarans, which are used right now between Sweden
and Denmark, which have about twice the speed of normal ferries. This
can be used all over the world; especially Indonesia is a place where
the natural water roads offer themselves for this technology.
again, to what the environmentalist movement says, the world economy
wil be much more energy-intensive in the future. There will be an
enormous energy requirement for the economic exploitation, for
example, of mineral resources, where technologies such as plasma
processing will be used. And we need a lot of water for the
large-scale desert regions in the Near and Middle East, in North
Africa, Central Asia, and in China, for pumping, reprocessing, and
desalination of water.
have to provide large amounts of cheap energy, of which electricity
today is the highest quality of energy, because you can easily
distribute it on a large scale. And, we also require large amounts of
industrial processes for buildings, industry, fuels for internal
combustion engines, and so forth.
the enormous quantity of fossil fuels in Eurasia, the technology which
has the highest energy flux density is, in the future, nuclear
fission, and, hopefully very soon, nuclear fusion. There are right now
extensive nuclear power programs in Japan, South Korea and North
Korea, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Iran, Turkey, and India. Presently,
the light water reactor of approximately 1000 MW, is in use in many
countries. France, for example, gets 80% of its electricity nationally
from this reactor type.
what we propose, is actually a much more attractive model: the
high-temperature reactor developed by Prof. Schulten from the Juelich
Laboratory in Germany. This is the only existing HTR in construction
right now, near Beijing, which we visited in May of last year. A
similar reactor is being developed in the United States and Japan.
But, in any case, the HTR is much more efficient than the light water
reactor, because it also, among other things, produces processes for
industrial and other uses.
HTR is inherently safe, because the possibility of a meltdown, other
releases of radioactivity, is ruled out by physical mechanisms. So,
without complex safety systems or human intervention, this reactor is
safe, mainly because of the encapsulization of the nuclear fuel within
multiple layers of a special high-tmperature ceramic, the so-called ``Siamant,''
which prevents the release of radioactivity, even under extreme
HTR is, therefore, a robust and easy-to-operate reactor, safe
especially in densely populated areas, and as a component of the
nuplex cities which have to be built. One big advantage, is that it is
based on the thorium cycle, of which India has large resources. As I
said, presently, China is the only country which is building an HTR
based on the Juelich type. And, it is useful for many, many projects
which I have mentioned.
could say many more things. I just wanted to give you a glimpse of, on
the one side, the gigantic construction activity, the physical
principles this effort has to have. We have produced this study, so I
invite you to study this in-depth.
me just go into two last aspects, to give you an idea.
you probably realize that I did not mention Russia, and obviously,
Russia is a crucial centerpiece within the Eurasian Land-Bridge. And,
I can assure you that, without doing what Leibniz said 300 years ago,
that is, taking Europe and China, and taking Russia as a mediation
between these two cultures, and bringing the development from both
sides, there is no way that we will avoid a terrible catastrophe in
now, as a result of the reform policy, the industrial production of
Russia has collapsed to 20%, average, in the last five years, of what
it was in 1991. General Lebed and others have warned that we are
looking at a danger this coming spring, because of a serious supply
there is right now,--this is not represented by Yeltsin, Chernomyrdin,
as such--there is right now a growing group of scientists and other
people in Russia, who are absolutely fascinated, who want to integrate
Russia into this Eurasian Land-Bridge. Mr. LaRouche gave a seminar in
April last year, organized by a famous economists like Leonid Abalkin,
with the participation of former Prime Minister Pavlov, and with 40
famous Russian economists, about this erspective. The proceedings in
Russian were just published, and are circulating widely in government
and other circles, as well as a document which Mr. LaRouche wrote for
the Russian Duma.
to the Mittelstand
Gen. Lebed was in Germany just two weeks ago, he--very surprisingly
and very positively--announced the need for Russia to go back to the
policies of Count Witte, which was exactly the same approach, and to
use the German model of machine tool Mittelstand, middle-level
industry, to transform Russia.
this obviously is very urgent, and no time is to be lost.
me just, as a last point, mention the German situation. Those of you
who know Germany and love it like I do, are probably crying right now
over what is happening to this beautiful country. Rather than using
the historic chance of 1989 and transforming the East through
technological means, Germany, being really hoodwinked by the
Anglo-Americans, by Thatcher, by Bush, by Mitterrand, is now
collapsing. It is right now falling apart at a speed which people
are right now, officially, 4.5 million employed. But, if you take the
hidden unemployment, Germany right now has well above 8 million
unemployed. That is higher than 1932 or '33, when Hitler came to
power, and the situation is, even though there is no Hitler inside,
the country is in a very, very dangerous situation.
has lost, in the last five years, 25% of its industrial employment.
This, for Germany, is a catastrophe, because the German economy,
despite the present collapse, is unique. For example, in '95,
Germany's exports were still DM 728 billion; 87% of that was
industrial goods, mainly capital goods; 112 billion in export in
machine tool, 11 billion of those machine tool design; 126 billion in
vehicles, 96 billion chemical products, 96 billion electrical
equipment, 13 billion precision and mechanical and optical goods, 15
billion aviation and space vehicles.
the only other country which has a similar situation isJapan. But,
they're more focussed on the Far East, while Germany has a broader,
worldwide distribution. And, there is no country in the world which is
as dependent on the prosperity and stability of other regions in the
world, as Germany.
in Germany, we have seen, since the unification, a dramatic collapse
of export-oriented jobs: 700,000 jobs alone were lost in this area.
So, the situation is absolutely dramatic, and, if Germany is to be
saved, it is so obvious: Germany has everything which these corridors
need. It is a crime to destroy these industries.
government right now, which is absolutely mad to fulfill Maastricht, a
conception which was designed by Thatcher and Mitterrand to contain
Germany, to weaken Germany, and to destroy it for geopolitical
reasons, is, right now, in the process of turning Germany into a
are determined to put the Eurasian Land-Bridge on the table as an
reason Germany has to play a crucial role, is that Germany not only
has this export-dependency, but the reason for that, was that Germany
has a very large component of machine tool and Mittelstand. Now, this
is extremely important for all the other economies as well, because,
contrary to what the economists of the monetarist school of Adam Smith
and others are saying, the source of wealth of a country is not its
resources. It's not oil, gas, strategic minerals, and all these other
things. It's not speculation, it's not stocks, it's not a bubble
only source of wealth in an economy, is the creative reason of the
individual. And, if that creative reason is applied, and leads to
scientific and technological progress, which, then, is basically
turned into machine tools, then you apply scientific and technological
progress, and make it usable for production. This occurs through the
work of the engineer, the scientist. He turns it into a machine tool,
and many of the machine tool Mittelstand industries in Germany, were,
up to the present time, run and headed by engineers, who had a family
firm, with several dozen or several hundred employees. And, they were
the engine of technological progress.
Germany also, obviously, has a way of reversing its present course,
because we do have a tradition of making people creative, because
Germany used to have the best educational system in the world: the
famous Humboldt education system, which was the reason why, in the
19th century, Germany was the leading country in the world, in
producing new technologies and defining new categories of knowledge.
And, all we have to do, is to go back to that educational system,
where the centerpiece is not specific skills, but the development of
the character, the development of the character and beauty of the
person to become a state citizen.
Germany a Centerpiece
what we propose is to return to this, and make Germany a centerpiece,
and not let Germany collapse, but make it one of the leading motors in
the driving of this Eurasian Land-Bridge. We have what people need;
why should we collapse? We can help.
there are two strategic areas, where everybody can see that the
regions will blow up, if this is not done. One, is the Balkans, and
Bosnia in particular, where the Eurasian Land-Bridge must be effected
to calm down and develop the region. You all have heard that Bulgaria
right now is falling apart, there is a terrible hunger catastrophe.
The country is just collapsing: You have hyperinflation, a complete
standstill of the economy. Serbia is exploding, among other things,
because of the economic condition. Albania--Kosova--there will be
another war for sure, if Bosnia and the Balkans are not part of this,
I think that if you look at the continent of Africa, it is also clear
that, with what is going on in Zaire, Rwanda, Burundi, Sudan, the only
way to stop the bloodshed, to stop the collapse, is to build the
Eurasian Land-Bridge into Africa as quickly as possible.
is the map of the railways which existed in 1990. And, what is
proposed, and what we propose, is to connect the Eurasian Land-Bridge
fully to the African railway system as a totality. If this is done
with the help of China, other countries of Eurasia, Germany, Japan,
and with the full backing of the United States, there is no reason why
Africa cannot be saved. It is eminently possible.
what is required, therefore, and this is the purpose of this seminar,
is for the United States to go back, consciously, to the policies of
FDR, overcoming the Depression through a dirigistic program, not only
for the United States, but for the world as a whole.
we do that, then each of us can look into the eyes of these children,
and many other children to come; if we don't do it, then these
children will not live.